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RSS My latest analysis for gold

  • What The Experts Are Saying About the Gold Price July 15, 2011
    With the spot gold price now having broken out into new high ground, having touched $1594 per ounce earlier this week, here is a round up of what the experts are saying.  However, a couple of points:  first the gold price is still some way off its equivalent high of the 1980′s.  In other words, […]

RSS My latest analysis for silver

  • What The Experts Are Saying About the Gold Price July 15, 2011
    With the spot gold price now having broken out into new high ground, having touched $1594 per ounce earlier this week, here is a round up of what the experts are saying.  However, a couple of points:  first the gold price is still some way off its equivalent high of the 1980′s.  In other words, […]

RSS My latest analysis for oil

  • What The Experts Are Saying About the Gold Price July 15, 2011
    With the spot gold price now having broken out into new high ground, having touched $1594 per ounce earlier this week, here is a round up of what the experts are saying.  However, a couple of points:  first the gold price is still some way off its equivalent high of the 1980′s.  In other words, […]

Archive for gold index. cot report gold

COT Futures – Australian Dollar 6th April 2009

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Monday, April 6th, 2009

audcotindex31stmarch2

The COT data for this week shows an increase in the cot index which is now starting to climb away from the extreme lows of the last few weeks, suggesting that we are now seeing the long awaited reversal in the Australian dollar, a move which is reflected in the spot market against many other currencies, of which the US dollar is typical. A look at the weekly chart for the Aussie dollar, reveals a double bottom over the last 6 months, with a breakout from this trading range now imminent, and with a wide spread up bar, the AUD/USD pair are poised to break through the resistance level at 0.7090.   However as always we need to bear in mind that the COT index is a direction indicator only, and not a timing indicator, and should only be used to reinforce or support our view of the spot market.

All the latest fundamental news is now available on the economic calendar, and if you are looking for the latest live price for the AUD/USD currency pair, then just follow the appropriate link. Finally, if you are looking for a good ECN broker I have provided some details on what to look for when choosing your broker.

Categories : Australian Dollar, COT Currencies
Tags : AUD/USD, aussie dollar, canadian dollar. loonie, CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, cot analysis, COT data, cot futures, cot index, COT Index Gold, COT Index Oil, COT Index Silver, cot report, cot report oil, crude oil index, futures and options, futures contracts, futures silver prices, GBP usd, gold index. cot report gold, gold prices, online futures trading, silver futures, silver index, spot gold, spot gold prices, spot silver, Swiss Franc, uk pounds, UK sterling, USD/CAD, weekly cot report

Gold – Weekly COT Index 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

goldcotindex24thmarch

No real change since last week other than commercials still selling into a rising market, although the volume of contracts has substantially reduced in the futures market since this time last year.  As an example this time last year  the total number of positions was 141k whereas last week the total number was close to 95k and with commercial short positions having fallen from 100k last year to 64.5k this year.

In the spot market the trend is still bullish longer term although we are currently seeing some sideways consolidation in the market at present due to the economic climate and present round of quantitative easing and financial bail outs.   The perceived wisdom of the stock markets is that the rally of the past few weeks is merely a temporary bull rise which, in due course, is likely to classified as a dead cat bounce.  This in turn could lead investors back to gold and silver as safe havens in uncertain times.

Categories : COT Index Gold, COT Metals, COT Report
Tags : CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot index, COT Index Gold, cot indices, cot report, gold futures, gold index. cot report gold, gold prices, online futures trading, silver index, spot gold, spot gold prices, spot silver prices, weekly cot report

COT Index – GBP Pound 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

gbpcotindex24thmarch

Everything I say may appear slightly contrarian when viewed using the COT index as an indicator but the British Pound is a good example at present which I hope will make the point with a little explanation.  At present the Commercial futures holders are net long and have been for some time even whilst the pound has been falling heavily in the spot market which may seem odd at first glance.  However, if we stop and think for a moment about the nature of the commercial holders, these are institutions with very deep pockets who are taking long term view of the market and are therefore building their positions by buying at what they consider to be a low price with a view to selling the contracts in the 12 to 18 months once the pound has recovered.

All of the above merely highlights the timeframes one is dealing with when viewing the COT index; it is not a timing indicator as such but much more a sentiment and direction indicator for the longer term.  The extremes of the chart, whether zero or 100 are the points at which the sentiment shifts in the commercial holders and at which point we may expect to see a change in price direction in the spot market in the following period.

Categories : British Pound, COT Currencies, COT Report
Tags : CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot indes, cot index, cot report, futures and options, futures contracts, GBP usd, gold index. cot report gold, online futures contracts, spot gold, sterling currency futures, sterliong futures, weekly cot report

Cot Index Silver – Weekly Report 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

silvercotindex24thmarch

As with silver the futures’ positions of the Commercials shows an expectation of further increases in the price of gold, a position which is likely to remain unchanged until we reach an extreme on the COT index approaching anywhere close to 100, assuming the current trend continues to build as we have seen over the past 20 weeks.   Again I must emphasise that this index is not a timing tool but merely reflects the sentiment of some of the biggest market players and you trade against them at your peril.

Categories : COT Index Silver, COT Report
Tags : canadian dollar. loonie, CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot index, COT Index Gold, futures and options, futures contracts, gold futures, gold index. cot report gold, gold prices, online futures trading, silver futures, silver index, spot silver, spot silver prices, weekly cot report

COT Index Gold – 16th March 2009

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Sunday, March 15th, 2009

cotgold750x468
The weekly COT index chart for gold, shows little change on last week suggesting that the trend for spot gold prices is to move higher, with the commercials showing a slight decline as the spot price fell from 00 per ounce to close the week around 0 per ounce. Despite the rally in equities last week, this is only seen as a temporary bear squeeze, and in the medium term I expect the markets to fall further, with gold providing the traditional role of safe haven status for investors. With many gold ETF funds holding greater reserves of gold than many central banks, the bullish momentum is likely to continue for some time to come, and until we see the COT index reaching highs of 90 or above, then it is a clear signal that the bullish tone of the markets is still in place. For the longer term therefore, spot gold contracts are a buy and hold strategy with wide stop losses to protect the positions on any pullback. The daily fundamental news is now available live on the economic calendar, along with live charts for the other major commodities including the spot silver price and the daily oil price.

Categories : COT Index Gold
Tags : CFTC, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot index, cot report, gold index. cot report gold
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