The COT data for this week shows an increase in the cot index which is now starting to climb away from the extreme lows of the last few weeks, suggesting that we are now seeing the long awaited reversal in the Australian dollar, a move which is reflected in the spot market against many other currencies, of which the US dollar is typical. A look at the weekly chart for the Aussie dollar, reveals a double bottom over the last 6 months, with a breakout from this trading range now imminent, and with a wide spread up bar, the AUD/USD pair are poised to break through the resistance level at 0.7090.   However as always we need to bear in mind that the COT index is a direction indicator only, and not a timing indicator, and should only be used to reinforce or support our view of the spot market.

All the latest fundamental news is now available on the economic calendar, and if you are looking for the latest live price for the AUD/USD currency pair, then just follow the appropriate link. Finally, if you are looking for a good ECN broker I have provided some details on what to look for when choosing your broker.

The futures’ positions of the commercial players remains largely unchanged since last week when we saw the oil price spike up to $55 dollars a barrel and despite today’s fall in the spot market my view remains unchanged and has been reinforced by the monthly WTI crude oil chart which shows a long legged doji followed by a hammer – two classic reversal signals which suggest that we are now at the bottom of a long waterfall of prices.

COT Index For Silver - Week Ending 20th February 2009

Just like the gold index,  the COT index for silver has begun to climb heading back up from the low of 18 weeks ago which suggests that the commercial contract holders are increasingly seeing an opportunity to sell into the rising prices in spot silver, which has been following gold in the bull rally of the last few months reaching just under $15 per ounce last week. From the above we can assume that we are some way from the peak for spot silver prices, and as I have been suggesting for some time, silver is an excellent prospect for a long term buy and hold, with the commercial contracts just starting to sell into the rally. From the above picture I would suggest that silver has a great deal further to go in the rally than gold on a percentage basis which is normally the case when prices are rising. The converse of course is that when prices fall, the silver will fall faster than gold on a percentage basis. If you would like to keep up to date with spot silver prices on a daily basis, then please just follow the link.

COT Report - Silver Index 27th January 2009

Silver and gold will always tend to follow one another, with gold prices often performing better in a bullish  move then gold, but conversely they tend to perform worse in a bearish market. Last week we saw a rise in the Silver Index to 20, and this suggests that we are now starting to see a rise in silver prices in the short to medium term, with the low of 15 weeks ago providing a turning signal. As many of you may know I am bullish on silver so this is good news. If you would like to follow my daily posts on spot silver prices, then please just follow the link.