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RSS My latest analysis for gold

  • What The Experts Are Saying About the Gold Price July 15, 2011
    With the spot gold price now having broken out into new high ground, having touched $1594 per ounce earlier this week, here is a round up of what the experts are saying.  However, a couple of points:  first the gold price is still some way off its equivalent high of the 1980′s.  In other words, […]

RSS My latest analysis for silver

  • What The Experts Are Saying About the Gold Price July 15, 2011
    With the spot gold price now having broken out into new high ground, having touched $1594 per ounce earlier this week, here is a round up of what the experts are saying.  However, a couple of points:  first the gold price is still some way off its equivalent high of the 1980′s.  In other words, […]

RSS My latest analysis for oil

  • What The Experts Are Saying About the Gold Price July 15, 2011
    With the spot gold price now having broken out into new high ground, having touched $1594 per ounce earlier this week, here is a round up of what the experts are saying.  However, a couple of points:  first the gold price is still some way off its equivalent high of the 1980′s.  In other words, […]

Archive for futures and options

COT Futures – Australian Dollar 6th April 2009

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Monday, April 6th, 2009

audcotindex31stmarch2

The COT data for this week shows an increase in the cot index which is now starting to climb away from the extreme lows of the last few weeks, suggesting that we are now seeing the long awaited reversal in the Australian dollar, a move which is reflected in the spot market against many other currencies, of which the US dollar is typical. A look at the weekly chart for the Aussie dollar, reveals a double bottom over the last 6 months, with a breakout from this trading range now imminent, and with a wide spread up bar, the AUD/USD pair are poised to break through the resistance level at 0.7090.   However as always we need to bear in mind that the COT index is a direction indicator only, and not a timing indicator, and should only be used to reinforce or support our view of the spot market.

All the latest fundamental news is now available on the economic calendar, and if you are looking for the latest live price for the AUD/USD currency pair, then just follow the appropriate link. Finally, if you are looking for a good ECN broker I have provided some details on what to look for when choosing your broker.

Categories : Australian Dollar, COT Currencies
Tags : AUD/USD, aussie dollar, canadian dollar. loonie, CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, cot analysis, COT data, cot futures, cot index, COT Index Gold, COT Index Oil, COT Index Silver, cot report, cot report oil, crude oil index, futures and options, futures contracts, futures silver prices, GBP usd, gold index. cot report gold, gold prices, online futures trading, silver futures, silver index, spot gold, spot gold prices, spot silver, Swiss Franc, uk pounds, UK sterling, USD/CAD, weekly cot report

COT Index – GBP Pound 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

gbpcotindex24thmarch

Everything I say may appear slightly contrarian when viewed using the COT index as an indicator but the British Pound is a good example at present which I hope will make the point with a little explanation.  At present the Commercial futures holders are net long and have been for some time even whilst the pound has been falling heavily in the spot market which may seem odd at first glance.  However, if we stop and think for a moment about the nature of the commercial holders, these are institutions with very deep pockets who are taking long term view of the market and are therefore building their positions by buying at what they consider to be a low price with a view to selling the contracts in the 12 to 18 months once the pound has recovered.

All of the above merely highlights the timeframes one is dealing with when viewing the COT index; it is not a timing indicator as such but much more a sentiment and direction indicator for the longer term.  The extremes of the chart, whether zero or 100 are the points at which the sentiment shifts in the commercial holders and at which point we may expect to see a change in price direction in the spot market in the following period.

Categories : British Pound, COT Currencies, COT Report
Tags : CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot indes, cot index, cot report, futures and options, futures contracts, GBP usd, gold index. cot report gold, online futures contracts, spot gold, sterling currency futures, sterliong futures, weekly cot report

COT Index – Oil Futures Contracts 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

oilcotindex24thmarch

The futures’ positions of the commercial players remains largely unchanged since last week when we saw the oil price spike up to $55 dollars a barrel and despite today’s fall in the spot market my view remains unchanged and has been reinforced by the monthly WTI crude oil chart which shows a long legged doji followed by a hammer – two classic reversal signals which suggest that we are now at the bottom of a long waterfall of prices.

Categories : COT Index Oil, COT Report
Tags : CFTC, change in sentiment, commercial positions, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot index, cot report, crude oil cot, crude oil index, futures and options, futures contracts, futures exchange, futures exchanges, futures silver prices, hedging trades in futures, large speculators, on balance volume, open interest, open interest volume, small traders, trading futures, weekly cot report

Cot Index Silver – Weekly Report 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

silvercotindex24thmarch

As with silver the futures’ positions of the Commercials shows an expectation of further increases in the price of gold, a position which is likely to remain unchanged until we reach an extreme on the COT index approaching anywhere close to 100, assuming the current trend continues to build as we have seen over the past 20 weeks.   Again I must emphasise that this index is not a timing tool but merely reflects the sentiment of some of the biggest market players and you trade against them at your peril.

Categories : COT Index Silver, COT Report
Tags : canadian dollar. loonie, CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot index, COT Index Gold, futures and options, futures contracts, gold futures, gold index. cot report gold, gold prices, online futures trading, silver futures, silver index, spot silver, spot silver prices, weekly cot report

Canadian Dollar – Cot Index 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

cadcotindex24thmarch

The Canadian Dollar continues to remain a long term buy despite last week’s temporary reduction in both long and short positions but still leaving the Commercials with a net long view of this currency.   A look at the monthly usd to cad candle charts would tend to support this bullish view of the Canadian dollar where this month’s candle will be a very long legged doji preceded by a series of tweezer tops.  Again I have to stress that the COT index is a long term sentiment indicator and wont always necessarily support the spot market picture.

Categories : Canadian Dollar, COT Currencies, COT Report
Tags : cad futures contracts, canadian dollar. loonie, CFTC, commitment of traders, commitment of traders report, COT data, cot futures, cot indices, futures, futures and options, futures contracts, futures prices, online futures trading, weekly cot report
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