COT Report

The COT report can be extremely confusing for novice traders, as the data is presented in several different formats and in addition of course, the CFTC have recently changed the reporting categories in an attempt to provide further transparency in the futures market. Whilst this...

Mention the word COT report to a group of traders and investors, and you will generally be met by one of three reactions. First, there are those traders who have never heard of the report or the CFTC. Second are those who have, and having...

Open interest in the British Pound increased dramatically last week moving strongly from 95,700 contracts of 2 weeks ago to 119k of 16th February, and as clearly evidenced on the weekly COT chart continues to increase from the low of mid December at 72k.  With...

The chart above indicates the weekly change in open interest for spot gold over a two year period with the first week of 2008 on the far right of the chart and with last week’s open interest on the far left.  Last week’s open interest ...

With Japan’s fiscal year end now passed, we can begin to focus with more confidence on the COT index for the Japanese yen.   However, as always we need to bear in mind that the COT index must be viewed as a sentiment indicator and not...

The COT data for this week shows an increase in the cot index which is now starting to climb away from the extreme lows of the last few weeks, suggesting that we are now seeing the long awaited reversal in the Australian dollar, a move...

No real change since last week other than commercials still selling into a rising market, although the volume of contracts has substantially reduced in the futures market since this time last year.  As an example this time last year  the total number of positions was...

Everything I say may appear slightly contrarian when viewed using the COT index as an indicator but the British Pound is a good example at present which I hope will make the point with a little explanation.  At present the Commercial futures holders are net...

The futures’ positions of the commercial players remains largely unchanged since last week when we saw the oil price spike up to $55 dollars a barrel and despite today’s fall in the spot market my view remains unchanged and has been reinforced by the monthly...

As with silver the futures’ positions of the Commercials shows an expectation of further increases in the price of gold, a position which is likely to remain unchanged until we reach an extreme on the COT index approaching anywhere close to 100, assuming the current...