As with silver the futures’ positions of the Commercials shows an expectation of further increases in the price of gold, a position which is likely to remain unchanged until we reach an extreme on the COT index approaching anywhere close to 100, assuming the current trend continues to build as we have seen over the past 20 weeks.   Again I must emphasise that this index is not a timing tool but merely reflects the sentiment of some of the biggest market players and you trade against them at your peril.

As with the gold COT index, so the same picture appears with silver, with the bullish momentum now in place, and whilst we have seen a pullback in the last two weeks which is reflected in the spot silver price chart, unless we see a fall back to the extremes of 5 and below, then COT index should move higher as we see the bullish move continue in the spot market. In the longer term we should see the bullish momentum continue provided the chart does not retrace back into the extreme, but allied with the technical analysis of the chart, and supported by my view of gold prices, I think this is unlikely at present.

The COT index for silver show little change on last week, with a small change in the contract positions as as result of the decline in the spot silver price last week. Unless this decline continues for the next few weeks, then I would suggest that this is only a temporary reversal in the longer term bullish move in spot silver prices, which have mirrored the rise in the gold market. In my view we still have along way to go for silver before reaching a major top reversal, and until the COT index starts to register at one of the extremes ( either 5-10, or 90 – 95 ) then the trend in the chart will remain in place.  All the latest economic data is now available live on the economic calendar, along with the latest spot gold prices, spot silver price, and the daily oil price.

COT Index Silver - 6th March 2009

Much the same applies to silver as to gold, with the index suggesting that silver has further to run in the current bull rally, despite the pullback that we saw in the candle spot silver price charts last week. With the index in the low 30′ and rising, this is suggesting that the commercial traders are beginning to start selling into the rally, which should therefore continue for some time. What does seem likely from the current index is that gold prices may peak more quickly than silver. We have added an economic calendar for all the fundamental news, along with a live news feed for the latest breaking news.

COT Index For Silver - Week Ending 20th February 2009

Just like the gold index,  the COT index for silver has begun to climb heading back up from the low of 18 weeks ago which suggests that the commercial contract holders are increasingly seeing an opportunity to sell into the rising prices in spot silver, which has been following gold in the bull rally of the last few months reaching just under $15 per ounce last week. From the above we can assume that we are some way from the peak for spot silver prices, and as I have been suggesting for some time, silver is an excellent prospect for a long term buy and hold, with the commercial contracts just starting to sell into the rally. From the above picture I would suggest that silver has a great deal further to go in the rally than gold on a percentage basis which is normally the case when prices are rising. The converse of course is that when prices fall, the silver will fall faster than gold on a percentage basis. If you would like to keep up to date with spot silver prices on a daily basis, then please just follow the link.

COT Index Silver - 8th February 2009

Silver and gold will always tend to follow one another, with gold prices often performing better in a bullish  move then gold, but conversely they tend to perform worse in a bearish market. Last week we saw a rise in the Silver Index to 22, and this suggests that we are now starting to see a rise in silver prices in the short to medium term, with the low of 15 weeks ago providing a turning signal. As many of you may know I am bullish on silver so this is good news. If you would like to follow my daily posts on spot silver prices, then please just follow the link. We cannot  draw any further conclusions from this week’s data which is very close to last weeks.

COT Report - Silver Index 27th January 2009

Silver and gold will always tend to follow one another, with gold prices often performing better in a bullish  move then gold, but conversely they tend to perform worse in a bearish market. Last week we saw a rise in the Silver Index to 20, and this suggests that we are now starting to see a rise in silver prices in the short to medium term, with the low of 15 weeks ago providing a turning signal. As many of you may know I am bullish on silver so this is good news. If you would like to follow my daily posts on spot silver prices, then please just follow the link.