Archive for February 2009

COT Index – Light Sweet Crude Oil

Monday, February 23rd, 2009
COT Index Light Sweet Crude Oil - 23rd February 2009

COT Index Light Sweet Crude Oil - 23rd February 2009

The COT index for light sweet crude oil is still very patchy with no clear trend one way or the other, so it would seem we are due for more sideways movements in daily oil prices for some time yet. The jump in data this week was probably due to the rollover contract periods as we move from one month to another. For trading oil, the chart provides little useful information in  the way of future direction for us at the moment, other than to confirm the present trend as sideways.

COT Index Silver – 23rd February 2009

Monday, February 23rd, 2009
COT Index For Silver - Week Ending 20th Febraury 2009

COT Index For Silver - Week Ending 20th February 2009

Just like the gold index,  the COT index for silver has begun to climb heading back up from the low of 18 weeks ago which suggests that the commercial contract holders are increasingly seeing an opportunity to sell into the rising prices in spot silver, which has been following gold in the bull rally of the last few months reaching just under $15 per ounce last week. From the above we can assume that we are some way from the peak for spot silver prices, and as I have been suggesting for some time, silver is an excellent prospect for a long term buy and hold, with the commercial contracts just starting to sell into the rally. From the above picture I would suggest that silver has a great deal further to go in the rally than gold on a percentage basis which is normally the case when prices are rising. The converse of course is that when prices fall, the silver will fall faster than gold on a percentage basis. If you would like to keep up to date with spot silver prices on a daily basis, then please just follow the link.

COT Index Gold – 23rd February 2009

Monday, February 23rd, 2009
COT Index For Gold - Week Ending 20th February 2009

COT Index For Gold - Week Ending 20th February 2009

In the last two weeks the COT index has begun to climb heading back up from the low of 15 weeks ago which suggests that the commercial contract holders are increasingly seeing an opportunity to sell into the rising prices in spot gold, which touched $1000 per ounce on Friday, before falling back to close just below. From the above we can assume that we are some way from the peak for spot gold prices, and can therefore assume that this is another indicator that the bull trend in gold is set to continue for some time yet. Naturally once the COT index starts to approach 95 then this will be our first warning signal that the bull trend is coming to an end. For a daily update on spot gold prices please just follow the link here.

Weekly COT Report – Silver Index 8th February 2009

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009
COT Index Silver - 8th February 2009

COT Index Silver - 8th February 2009

Silver and gold will always tend to follow one another, with gold prices often performing better in a bullish  move then gold, but conversely they tend to perform worse in a bearish market. Last week we saw a rise in the Silver Index to 22, and this suggests that we are now starting to see a rise in silver prices in the short to medium term, with the low of 15 weeks ago providing a turning signal. As many of you may know I am bullish on silver so this is good news. If you would like to follow my daily posts on spot silver prices, then please just follow the link. We cannot  draw any further conclusions from this week’s data which is very close to last weeks.

Weekly COT Report – Gold Index 8th February 2009

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009
COT Report Gold Index - 8th February 2009

COT Report Gold Index - 8th February 2009

The COT report for this week again shows the commercial traders beginning to sell into the rising trend in spot gold prices with the index approaching 60, so we should expect to see the trend continue for the short term at least, following the low of 12 weeks ago, as I have been suggesting in the spot gold prices daily report for some time. If this trend continues in the next few weeks then we could see the index start to approach the 80-90 region which could suggest a turning point in the spot price of gold.