Mention the word COT report to a group of traders and investors, and you will generally be met by one of three reactions. First, there are those traders who have never heard of the report or the CFTC. Second are those who have, and having spent some time trying to analyse and understand the ‘raw’ [...]
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British Pound - Open Interest Volumes Weekly 2008 to 2010
Open interest in the British Pound increased dramatically last week moving strongly from 95,700 contracts of 2 weeks ago to 119k of 16th February, and as clearly evidenced on the weekly COT chart continues to increase from the low of mid December at 72k. Â With open interest volume now increasing and a consequent fall in the pound against the dollar this suggests strongly bearish sentiment in the market. Â In simple terms the rise in open interest indicates new trading positions being created, with the fresh money probably creating additional short positions which are adding further to the bearish pressure. Â The current open interest picture confirms the current technical perspective both on the daily and weekly charts in the spot market. Â It is also interesting to note that in mid 2008 we saw an exponential increase in open interest (in excess of 180k contracts) while prices were range bound at the USD1.95 to USD2.0 price region. Â This type of activity in the futures market is often an excellent signal of an imminent and significant move, and whilst the market direction cannot always be forecast with any degree of certainty, it can provide us with an excellent early warning sign that the market is about to break out.
Weekly Spot Market FX Rates GBP/USD -2008 to 2010
The chart above indicates the weekly change in open interest for spot gold over a two year period with the first week of 2008 on the far right of the chart and with last week’s open interest on the far left. Last week’s open interest for gold was 466,905 contracts, having fallen from the previous [...]
With Japan’s fiscal year end now passed, we can begin to focus with more confidence on the COT index for the Japanese Yen.  However, as always we need to bear in mind that the COT index must be viewed as a sentiment indicator and not a timing indicator and cannot always be correlated with the [...]
The COT data for this week shows an increase in the cot index which is now starting to climb away from the extreme lows of the last few weeks, suggesting that we are now seeing the long awaited reversal in the Australian Dollar, a move which is reflected in the spot market against many other [...]
No real change since last week other than commercials still selling into a rising market, although the volume of contracts has substantially reduced in the futures market since this time last year. As an example this time last year the total number of positions was 141k whereas last week the total number was close to [...]
Everything I say may appear slightly contrarian when viewed using the COT index as an indicator but the British Pound is a good example at present which I hope will make the point with a little explanation. At present the Commercial futures holders are net long and have been for some time even whilst the [...]
The futures’ positions of the commercial players remains largely unchanged since last week when we saw the oil price spike up to $55 dollars a barrel and despite today’s fall in the spot market my view remains unchanged and has been reinforced by the monthly WTI crude oil chart which shows a long legged doji [...]
As with silver the futures’ positions of the Commercials shows an expectation of further increases in the price of gold, a position which is likely to remain unchanged until we reach an extreme on the COT index approaching anywhere close to 100, assuming the current trend continues to build as we have seen over the [...]
The Canadian Dollar continues to remain a long term buy despite last week’s temporary reduction in both long and short positions but still leaving the Commercials with a net long view of this currency.  A look at the monthly usd to cad candle charts would tend to support this bullish view of the Canadian dollar [...]
The most meaningful aspect of the COT index for the Japanese Yen was the shift 3 weeks ago by commercial contract holders from being net short at the point to the current situation where they are net long by some significant margin.  However, as this has happened towards the end of Japan’s fiscal year (ie [...]
The Australian Dollar Cot data is very interesting this week as there appears to have been a major transfer of future contracts by the commercial holders who are now net short. This is not unprecedented and happened at the end of last year. This does not necessarily signal a long term change in sentiment, merely [...]
The chart above indicates the weekly change in open interest for spot gold over a two year period with the first week of 2008 on the far right of the chart and with last week’s open interest on the far left. Last week’s open interest for gold was 466,905 contracts, having fallen from the previous [...]
No real change since last week other than commercials still selling into a rising market, although the volume of contracts has substantially reduced in the futures market since this time last year. As an example this time last year the total number of positions was 141k whereas last week the total number was close to [...]
The bullish momentum of gold seems to have remained in place with the COT index for this week showing only a minor fall back from the last two weeks, which reflects the pull back in spot gold prices. Assuming the trend continues, then we should see higher prices in gold over the next few months, [...]
The weekly COT index chart for gold, shows little change on last week suggesting that the trend for spot gold prices is to move higher, with the commercials showing a slight decline as the spot price fell from $1000 per ounce to close the week around $920 per ounce. Despite the rally in equities last [...]
The COT index for gold shows that the rally in the price of gold seems set to continue for some time yet, with last weeks data showing a slight pullback from the rally of the last few weeks, which is reflected in the spot market. The candle chart of two weeks ago provided a bearish [...]
In the last two weeks the COT index has begun to climb heading back up from the low of 15 weeks ago which suggests that the commercial contract holders are increasingly seeing an opportunity to sell into the rising prices in spot gold, which touched $1000 per ounce on Friday, before falling back to close [...]
Much the same as last week with the index falling, this suggests that the commercial group is expecting crude oil prices to fall further and are therefore stockpiling supplies in the hope of prices rising in the future. For a clear buying signal we need to wait for the index to reach a low of [...]
The COT report for this week shows the commercial traders beginning to sell into the rising trend in spot gold prices, so we should expect to see the trend continue for the short term at least, following the low of 12 weeks ago, as I have been suggesting in the spot gold prices daily report [...]
The futures’ positions of the commercial players remains largely unchanged since last week when we saw the oil price spike up to $55 dollars a barrel and despite today’s fall in the spot market my view remains unchanged and has been reinforced by the monthly WTI crude oil chart which shows a long legged doji [...]
The reversal in crude oil prices now seems to be in place, with the COT index moving firmly away from the extreme of two weeks ago, which suggested that we should see bullish trend starting in oil prices, which now seems to be the case in the daily oil price, as it breaks out from [...]
The weekly chart for crude oil futures, shows little change in the COT index data, with a very low reading once again, suggesting that we are reaching a turning point for the daily oil price, and it would not be a surprise to see oil prices rising in the near future. The trend of the [...]
The COT index is still extremely volatile with peaks one week and troughs the next, and with no real direction or indication of a price trend, which in many ways reflects the market at present, with prices consolidating in a relatively narrow trading range in the daily oil price between $35 and $50 per barrel. [...]
With the index falling, this suggests that the commercial group is expecting crude oil prices to fall further and are therefore stockpiling supplies in the hope of prices rising in the future. For a clear buying signal we need to wait for the index to reach a low of 5-10, before we can expect any [...]
As with silver the futures’ positions of the Commercials shows an expectation of further increases in the price of gold, a position which is likely to remain unchanged until we reach an extreme on the COT index approaching anywhere close to 100, assuming the current trend continues to build as we have seen over the [...]
As with the gold COT index, so the same picture appears with silver, with the bullish momentum now in place, and whilst we have seen a pullback in the last two weeks which is reflected in the spot silver price chart, unless we see a fall back to the extremes of 5 and below, then [...]
The COT index for silver show little change on last week, with a small change in the contract positions as as result of the decline in the spot silver price last week. Unless this decline continues for the next few weeks, then I would suggest that this is only a temporary reversal in the longer [...]
Much the same applies to silver as to gold, with the index suggesting that silver has further to run in the current bull rally, despite the pullback that we saw in the candle spot silver price charts last week. With the index in the low 30′ and rising, this is suggesting that the commercial traders [...]
Just like the gold index, the COT index for silver has begun to climb heading back up from the low of 18 weeks ago which suggests that the commercial contract holders are increasingly seeing an opportunity to sell into the rising prices in spot silver, which has been following gold in the bull rally of [...]
Silver and gold will always tend to follow one another, with gold prices often performing better in a bullish move then gold, but conversely they tend to perform worse in a bearish market. Last week we saw a rise in the Silver Index to 22, and this suggests that we are now starting to see [...]
Silver and gold will always tend to follow one another, with gold prices often performing better in a bullish move then gold, but conversely they tend to perform worse in a bearish market. Last week we saw a rise in the Silver Index to 20, and this suggests that we are now starting to see [...]
